SEC Bubble Watch: Rebels and Tide Live To See Another Day

Locks

Nothing changed in this category after Friday night. The Florida Gators rolled LSU 80-58 in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. The Gators definitely weren’t playing their best basketball heading into postseason play, so we will see if they can turn things around and get on a roll heading into the NCAA’s. Florida looks to be a lock for a 3 seed, but if they lose to Alabama and K-State or Syracuse win their conference titles, they could possibly fall to a 4 seed.

Missouri continued their maddening season on Friday. The Tigers blew a 14 point lead in the 2nd half against Ole Miss and lost 64-62. Mizzou is still a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but they lost any chance they had of moving off that 8/9 seed line.

 

 

Seed Team Record RPI SOS T-50 Comment
3 Florida 25-6 8 23 5-3 Gators road to an SEC title just got a lot easier with the loss of Mizzou and Kentucky.
8-9 Missouri 23-10 34 33 4-5 Another last second loss for the Tigers, but they are a lock for the tournament.

 

Bubble Teams

P Photo/Dave Martin

Wow what a cluster we have in this category. Two of the bubble teams we thought were in as of yesterday ended up losing, and the two teams that looked like they were going to be on the outside looking in, ended up winning.

Losing to Vanderbilt 64-48, should be the final nail in the coffin for Kentucky. The Wildcats are 0-4 in road or neutral site games without Nerlens Noel, and I think the committee will look hard at that.

The other team I believe that is currently on the outside looking in, is Alabama. The Tide got a huge win yesterday against Tennessee, but I’m not sure it’s enough. An 0-5 record against Top 50 RPI teams is the biggest issue with Alabama’s resume. Other then that, they are 8-4 in their last 12 games and have a 7-8 record in road or neutral site games. If they beat Florida today then they are in.

I like Tennesse’s resume but yesterday’s loss to Alabama definitely puts them in a tough position. The Vols are 9-3 in their last 12 games and have several good wins this season. Tennessee has beaten Wichita State, Florida, Mizzou, Umass, and Kentucky, and their worst loss came against Georgia (137). In my opinion that’s a good enough resume to get them in, but they need to keep a close eye on Bama/Florida, Southern Miss/Memphis, and Maryland/North Carolina. If the wrong teams win those games, it’s going to knock out teams like Tennesee who can no longer improve their resume.

Ole Miss is a tough one. They have a very good record but their Strength of Schedule (SOS) is poor compared to a lot of the other bubble teams. They also have 2 very bad losses, South Carolina (220) and Mississippi State (229). Much like Tennessee, Ole Miss fans need to be cheering for Florida, Memphis, and North Carolina today. A win against Vanderbilt isn’t going to officially punch the Rebels ticket to the dance, so they need to hope the right teams keep losing.

Seed Team Record RPI SOS T-50 J. Lunardi (ESPN J. Palm (CBS) A. Glockner (SI) B. Evans (Yahoo) Comment
12-out Tennessee 20-12 57 47 3-5 First 4 out Last 4 in Last 4 in In (12 seed) Tough loss yesterday against Bama, but will their strong finish to the regular season be enough?
12-out Mississippi 24-8 50 143 2-3 Last 4 in First 4 out Last 4 in In (12 seed) Rebels got a huge win last night against Mizzou, but I still think they need to keep winning to get in.
12-out Kentucky 21-11 56 73 3-4 Next 4 out First 4 out Out Out Wildcats tourney chances took a big hit last night after getting dominated by Vanderbilt.
12-out Alabama 20-11 60 127 0-5 First 4 out First 4 out Out Out With an 0-5 record against Top 50 opponents, Bama still has a lot of work to do. Beat Florida today and they are in.

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Topics: Bracketology, NCAA Tournament, SEC

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