Missouri Tigers Game Preview: Toledo Rockets

BY DEREK FRANKS with BEN BROWN

The Missouri Tigers football season is now in full swing as Mizzou travels to Toledo for its first meeting with an FBS team in 2014. And it looks to be a tight match up, despite the conference discrepancy.

Mizzou visits the Rockets home stadium for the first time ever as it looks to improve its record to 2-0 on the season. Here’s everything you need to know to get you set for Saturday’s game and our predictions.

Opponent: Toledo Rockets

This will be Mizzou head coach Gary Pinkel’s first trip back to Toledo, where he coached from 1991-2000. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 1-0

Game Time: 11:00 AM CST

Venue: Glass Bowl, Toledo, Ohio

Television: ESPN

Vegas Predictions: Missouri, 3.5 favorites

The Opponent:

The Toledo Rockets won their first game against an FCS team, New Hampshire 54-20. New Hampshire initially jumped out to a 14-3 lead, but the rest of the game belonged to the Rockets outscoring them 51-6 the rest of the way. The game was an exciting offensive show by Toledo, with 667 yards of total offense, even if it was against an FCS team. With 16 returning starters, they should be impressive.

Interesting to note, this is starting quarterback Phillip Ely’s second start in a Toledo uniform. But… it isn’t the first time the Tigers have faced him. Ely, an Alabama transfer, took a few snaps in relief of former Crimson Tide quarterback A.J. McCarron in their shellacking of Missouri back in 2012. Ely threw for 337 yards and 4 touchdowns while going 24 of his 34 passes in Toledo’s win over New Hampshire last week.

The Game:

This is the second all time meeting between Mizzou and head coach, Gary Pinkel’s former team, Toledo. Their first match came last season when Toledo visited Columbia and gave the Tigers a scare. The back and forth tug-of-war was entertaining football. Expect this game to be no different. The Tigers still have a little work to do in staying consistent and being disciplined and Toledo, while coming off a losing season, is returning 16 starters. Both teams have very strong passing games, competent offensive lines, ultra-talented pass rushers, and are weakest in the defensive secondary. What does that tell us? It’s going to be an evenly matched game, even with Mizzou playing in the superior conference.

Tigers Will Win If:

Missouri Center Evan Boehm will have his hands full with the Toledo pass rush. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

They show up early and stay late. This is a 60-minute game and Missouri may have to use all four quarters to down the Rockets. The Tigers have the awful tendency to just not show up to these games that they’re supposed to take care of until their backs are against the wall and all of the sudden they need a wake up call (cough, cough, South Dakota State). That can’t happen here. If Missouri controls things from the get-go and doesn’t let up, they should win this game.

Rockets Will Win If:

They come out better prepared than Mizzou. This happened last week for the Tigers and thankfully, they were playing a lower division team. If Toledo comes out guns-a-blazing and throws deep touchdowns back-to-back (which I can definitely see happening) and then the Tigers dilly-dally around for the first quarter and a half, it could be a long day for Tiger fans.

Match Up To Watch: The Toledo Defensive Line vs. Missouri’s Offensive Line

The Tigers have arguably one of the best O-lines in the SEC. All five starters have significant experience and have shown poise in the past year. That will be crucial in this game because Toledo gets after quarterbacks. The pass rush is probably Toledo’s single best quality. In fact, according to the adjusted sack rate, the Rockets have the best pass rush in the country, totaling 36 sacks last season. They had at least 2 sacks in all but one of their games a season ago. Guess which game that was?

Mizzou didn’t get sacked, but four times did they tackle QB James Franklin after a gain of 2 yards or less– which suggests they were still getting after him. And they were. MU’s offensive line definitely has its hands full. Maty Mauk will get pushed around. But it will be exciting to see who ultimately controls the line of scrimmage, because, in the end, it just might be the difference in who wins.

Prediction:

Derek-

Mizzou is certainly the favorite. They’re supposed to win. Which is exactly what scares me. The Tigers cannot afford to play down to this team. I still feel like they can compete for the SEC East crown. But they have to get through these games first. I like the match ups here. The running backs will get some breaks. Maty Mauk will get looks down the field, if he gets protection. I really like the passing game going up against Toledo’s secondary. The Tigers defensive secondary is its weakest link. And Toledo likes to stretch the field and throw. That means watch for a shootout. In my mind, Mizzou must control the flow of the game, use its rushing game to its advantage, and convert opportunities into points. I expect a high scoring affair. Missouri 41 Toledo 37. -DF

Ben-

Live Feed

South Bound & Down

Now, I’m going to go out on a limb on this, and I very likely could be wrong. But I think Gary Pinkel really wants to win this game. He’s spent the week talking up how great Toledo is, but I think you can tell how badly he wants to beat his former team, especially in their own stadium. The Rockets are good, especially with all the returning starters, but I’m calling a Tiger victory. Mizzou has too much talent, and their talent is going to trump Toledo’s seniority. Missouri 31 Toledo 20. -BB

Did you know: This game will have the very rare occurrence where one coach on the sideline will be the all-time leader in games won for both teams. Current Tigers head coach Gary Pinkel holds the Mizzou program’s record for most wins as a head coach with 102 wins in his 13 seasons as head coach, breaking the record in last year’s thrilling Cotton Bowl win over Oklahoma State. At Toledo, where he coached before he arrived to Missouri, his record for winning-est head coach in program history still stands at 73 games.