Missouri Tigers Game Preview: Florida Gators
By Derek Franks
(*With a contribution from staff writer Ben Brown)
If you’re the kind of football fan that likes games like the 71-68 extravaganza we saw with Baylor and TCU last weekend, this may not be the game fore you.
The Missouri Tigers, who we thought might have some impressive offensive performances this season, have been very stagnant in recent games. Where we thought we might see a shootout, we’ve been instead presented with a shutout. Yes, Mizzou looked dreadful in its 34-0 loss to Georgia at home last week. And it’s given a lot of Tiger fans a week filled with hopelessness and frustration. Is this team this bad?
Marcus Murphy has his work cut out for him against a tough Florida run defense. But he and fellow running back Russell Hansbrough HAVE to produce if Mizzou wants to win. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
We’re about to find out. The next calling? Gainesville. The Florida Gators, and a similar sub-par resume are the next test for the Tigers, who look to rebound from last week’s embarrassment. And they do it, still well alive for the SEC East division title. With no room for error, they face a tough, yet still very beatable Florida team in primetime. Here’s everything you need to know about the divisional battle between Mizzou and Florida:
Matchup: Missouri (4-2, 1-1 SEC) at Florida (3-2, 2-2 SEC)
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesvile Florida
Kickoff/Television: 6:00 PM CST, ESPN2
Line: Florida by 5.5
The Game:
Missouri comes in on a real down swing, after falling hard in its last game. But head coach Gary Pinkel is well known for getting his team’s spirits up and getting them mentally ready to rebound.
The team’s win at South Carolina two weeks ago– following another embarrassing loss to Indiana– was prime example of that. And Mizzou knows what’s on the line. The Tigers have no margin for error if they stand any chance at getting to Atlanta.
Florida poses a considerable threat, mostly because of their ability to play strong defense and keep opponents from having any production on offense. Knowing what we know about the struggles for the Tigers, that scares Mizzou Nation. Florida poses not only a burley defensive front, with Mizzou had its hands full with last weekend, but also one of the best rushing defense in the SEC.
Maty Mauk and Bud Sasser must find a way to connect vs. the Gators. Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Furthermore, they limit quarterbacks down field. Again, that spells trouble for Missouri, whose quarterback, Maty Mauk, had serious trouble at delivering passes in the previous game.
Missouri will have to establish a running game in this contest. The rushing attack was non-existent last weekend, and the team can’t afford to see that again. That will be tough because Florida doesn’t allow runners to have big games, conceding 116 yards per game (which is third in the SEC behind Alabama and Georgia).
The offensive line absolutely must improve, and Mauk must find a way to get his receivers the ball. What will help Missouri in this game, is another quality performance from the defense, which has been a bright spot so for in 2014. If the Tigers’ “D’ can create turnovers and give their offense a short field, it could very well be the key to winning the game.
Ben Brown’s Take On Florida:
Florida has been a bit of a weird team this year. Its two losses came against formidable opponents, Alabama and LSU. And the three wins are a 65-0 thrashing of Eastern Michigan, a very close 36-30 overtime win against Kentucky, and a tough-on-the-eyes nail-biter 10-9 win over Tennessee. So why does it seem like on every college football program in the country, they’re talking about head coach Will Muschamp being on the hotseat?
Keep your eye on Jonathon Bullard. He leads the Gators with 11.5 tackles, 3.5 tackles for a loss and 4 QB hurries. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
I personally watched the win over Tennessee and honestly, both teams were playing at a level close to the Tigers last whooping at the hands of Georgia. Tennessee seemed to be a shell of themselves without their star QB, Justin Worley and Florida was beating it self in pretty much every way possible. In fact, Florida did the same thing last week and lost because of it against LSU. Poor fundamentals come from poor coaching.
Florida has the talent, no question. They consistently have one of the best recruiting classes in the nation. The question is, will they make few enough mistakes to beat the Tigers.
A look at the numbers:
Certainly, the main concern here for Mizzou is finding an answer for the Florida defense. Counting on the Gators offense to make mistakes is hopeful, but it isn’t a strategy. The Tigers offense MUST be better. Why? Let’s look at just how good Florida’s defense really is.
Overall Defense Ranking: 40th
In SEC: 3rd
Defense Allows 357 yards per game
(Compared to Mizzou’s 380)
Rushing Yards allowed: 116 per game (Mizzou: 155)
Passing yards allowed: 235.2 (Mizzou: 225.2)
Points allowed per game: 22.1 (Mizzou 22.8)
Florida leads the major conferences forcing 3.0 turnovers per game
Ben mentioned that Florida is a weird team. They are. This is especially the case in the defensive secondary. The Gators have found a way to hold their last four opponents to incredibly low completion percentages. But on plays that their opponents are able to make, they go for big gains. Take a look:
Vs. Alabama and Kentucky– opponent’s completion percentage: 60%, 17.0 yards per completion, 8 TD, 4 INT
Vs. Tennessee and LSU– opponents completion percentage: 59%, 8.8 yards per completion, 1 TD, 2 INT
*Via Rock M Nation
So this paints a bewildering picture. The Gators are hard to read in the defensive secondary. But for the sake of precaution, let’s say that Mauk and company will have some trouble. Receivers Bud Sasser and Jimmi Hunt must find a way to create plays and get open if Missouri wants to win.
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On top of all of that, Missouri ranks in the bottom half of the country in total offense (75th), and 85th in their passing game, even with the quarterback and weapons the team has. The offense has its hands full again for sure with Florida.
Missouri’s biggest struggles this year have come on third down. The Tigers have converted just 2 of their last 15 attempts. Yikes. A key to winning this game is performing better on third down and Florida just so happens to struggle a tad bit (compared to the rest of its defensive statistics) on third down, allowing 41.8 percent of third downs to be converted. Missouri must take advantage of this weakness.
Predictions:
DEREK: It’s a given that Missouri has to play better on offense. And I usually really like Mizzou in these “bounce back” situations. But considering the opponent we have to wonder if the Tigers are up to the task. Still, I feel like they will come out to play on defense, forcing turnovers and give the offense a short field– or perhaps even score a defensive touchdown. Florida’s offense has been almost as awful as Mizzou’s has, and I trust Missouri will keep Florida from scoring too many points. I expect what drives the Tigers defense does concede to Florida will be stiffed in the red zone and Florida will have to settle for field goals. If Missouri can get a touchdown or two on Florida’s defense, that will be enough. Pick: Missouri 20, Florida 16.
BEN: It’s a tale of two Quarterbacks. If Florida’s JeffDriskel starts, Mizzou’s defense can prevail. Tevone Harris, the Tigers may be in trouble. I’m not fond of the match up with Mauk going into the swamp on primetime national television, especially after this past week. This is really going to test Maty’s resilliance. Turnovers will be key as well. In the end, I think the Tigers make fewer mistakes. Pick: Missouri 17, Florida 12