With a little under nine weeks until the season opener, I thought I would take the time to breakdown the rest of the conference. The Big X(II) Breakdown will run down the new, smaller league in alphabetical order. Here we go…
Robert Griffin III, he is the Baylor Bears. The Redshirt Junior Quarterback (somehow still only a junior) is coming back after a huge season offensively throwing for 3500 yards and rushing for more than 600. Which is more than the Missouri 2010 leaders in those two categories (Gabbert and Moore). There is no reason to think that he will not improve on those numbers considering they are returning their top FIVE receivers. You can see why Robert Griffin III alone could get Waco excited, for the first time in a while.
The offense is going to be near unstoppable next season, returning nine offensive starters including the quarterback, wide receivers and four of five offensive linemen. The only question mark will be if the new running back, Senior Terrance Ganaway is going to be able to take over at the running back position or if they will go with a running back by committee after the departure of 1000 yard rusher Jay Finley who got drafted in the 7th round of the NFL Draft.
Last season was a mixed bag for the Bears. They started the season 7-2 with losses to Texas Tech and TCU, and wins over the weaker part of the Big XII (Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, and Colorado). Then they ran into a brutal stretch of games, which often happened in the former Big twelve south. Blowout losses to Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma rounded out the regular portion of the schedule. They ended the season with a 38-14 loss in the Texas Bowl against Illinois. The offense wasn’t the problem, as Baylor was only held under twenty points twice (TCU and Illinois) but the defense never showed up, the Defense allowed less than thirty in only two conference games (Kansas and Texas) and well as the three of the four non-conference games. The defense was also ranked 104th in total defense giving up over 400 yards a game.
The defense will not be in as good of a position, as they only return 5 of 11 starters which may be a good or bad thing considering how terrible they were a season ago. The main problem will be a very inexperienced secondary that will make or break the team in the pass heavy Big XII. It will also be important for them to find a way to replace big Nose Guard Phil Taylor who got drafted in the 1st round of Aprils draft.
2011 Schedule and more analyis after the jump…
The 2011 Schedule looks something like this:
- 9/02 vs Texas Christian
- 9/17 vs Stephen F. Austin
- 9/24 vs Rice
- 10/01 at Kansas State
- 10/08 vs Iowa State
- 10/15 at Texas A&M
- 10/29 at Oklahoma State
- 11/05 vs. Missouri (Homecoming)
- 11/12 at Kansas
- 11/19 vs Oklahoma
- 11/26 vs Texas Tech
- 12/03 vs. Texas
There is no reason why after the Iowa State game that the Bears are not at least 4-1 and who knows, with a weakened TCU team coming into Waco in Week 1 this team could make come out of the blocks on fire with a 5-0 start. They would then hit the meat of the conference schedule, I would expect them to go 1-2 through TAMU, OSU, and Missouri. Then a 3-1 record in the last month of the season is possible since they will get the Longhorns and Red Raiders at home.
So to recap…
Expected Wins: Stephen F. Austin, Rice, Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Expected Losses: Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Swing Games: TCU, Oklahoma State, Missouri, Texas
Best Case Scenario: 8-4 (6-3 in conference)
More Realistically: 7-5 (5-4 in conference)
A 5-4 record inside of the conference should be pretty solid and a good building block for Robert Griffins senior season. If the defense makes great improvements there could be the potential for a much better season.
The Baylor/Missouri game will be a real test for James Franklin and the gang, it will be tough to get out of Waco alive in my opinion. In the last two meetings between the teams Baylor gave a scare to the 2008 team, and upset the 2009 team in Columbia (without Robert Griffin, I might add).
I will tell you what, it won’t be fun having to see Griffin two more times.
Next Week: The Iowa State Cyclones