Week 2 of the rundown of Big 12 football takes us to Ames, Iowa and the ISU Cyclones. If you missed last week and the post on the Baylor Bears, check it out here.
The Iowa State Cyclones are in an interesting position coming into this season, they should be damn happy that they are in a major conference considering that a possible conference realignment would have left them in an awkward place that may have put them in the MAC or C-USA. On the other hand, the schedule the Cyclones are going to have to navigate now is going to be tough to say the least. The program is going to have to drop a non-con game (like all Big 12 teams), which for most teams is dropping the tougher games but the Cyclones cannot do that since they are stuck in a rivalry against Iowa. So, you are taking away at least one win a year, adding the entire Big 12 south, and stuck playing a very good Big 10 team. Its going to be tough for a program like ISU to find bowl eligibility very often.
Really, last year was a weird and frustrating year in Ames. Wins against Northern Illinois and Texas Tech, and losses against Iowa and in Farmagedon against K-State rounded out the first month at .500. Blowout losses to Utah and Oklahoma started October poorly, but another bounce back in the second half of a month gave them another .500 month with wins over Texas and Kansas. The swing game of the season came in the first week of November against Nebraska. In one of the more exciting Big XII game of the season, the Cyclones forced overtime, got the ball second and allowed a touchdown on the first possession of OT. Then, after ISU scored they tried to end it on a fake FG and went for two. The throw from the holder was short but he had a receiver wide open, the incomplete pass left the Cyclones with a one point loss. A blowout loss to Colorado and then a weird 14-0 loss to Missouri ended the season at 5-7.
The heart and soul of the 2010 edition of the Cyclones, QB Austin Arnaud, has graduated and leaves a gaping hole at the quarterback position. Last years backup, Jerome Tiller should be the front runner for the job but Juco transfer Steele Jantz (what a name) should be in the mix for the starting job. Along with Arnaud, the ISU offence is replacing six starters. The running back stable is going to be young, with two sophomores battling for the starting job (although expect a running back by committee). At Wide Receiver, the Cys will be looking for someone to replace their top two receivers but there is some experience that shouldn’t show any drop off in production.
The defense should be able to improve on their mediocre performance last season, returning nine starters. That number will include the entire secondary, which is crucial in having a decent to good pass defense. After giving up 68 points to Utah, and 52 to Oklahoma the team is really going to have to step up to be anywhere near efficient.
Schedule and what to expect from the 2011 Cyclones after the jump…
The 2011 Cyclones Schedule
- 9/3 vs Northern Iowa
- 9/10 vs Iowa
- 9/16 @ Connecticut
- 10/1 vs Texas
- 10/8 @ Baylor
- 10/15 @ Missouri
- 10/22 vs Texas A&M
- 10/29 @ Texas Tech
- 11/5 vs Kansas
- 11/18 vs Oklahoma State
- 11/26 @ Oklahoma
- 12/3 @ Kansas State
This is a really tough schedule for a not very good team. A bowl berth would probably be a miracle. Two of the three non conference games are probably un winnable. If Texas comes to Ames it would be a swing game, but ISU can’t go into Austin two years in a row and come out with wins. I don’t see much of a way that this team even gets to five wins this season.
Expected Wins: Northern Iowa, Kansas
Expected Losses: Iowa, Connecticut, Texas, Baylor, Missouri, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Swing Games: Texas Tech, Kansas State
Best Case Scenario: 4-8
More Realistically: 2-10
The battle for the last spot in the Big 12 is going to be the Kansas/Iowa State game in Ames, which I expect ISU to win due to home field. Could they pull an upset? Very Well. Although its not exactly likely. I wish the Cyclones good luck this season, because they are probably going to need it.
When the Cyclones roll into Columbia, it will be the 100th homecoming in Missouri history and the crowd and team is going to be jacked so get excited for that.
Next week: The kansas Jayhawks.