This mock draft isn’t necessarily designed to predict what will happen as much as what should happen if teams drafted logically. However, teams don’t always draft logically. For example, the Vikings are likely to take Matt Kalil at No. 3 and the Dolphins are going to take Ryan Tannehill at No. 8 (if the Browns don’t get him at No. 4), even though Kalil lacks the speed to handle quicker pass rushers and Tannehill is a project quarterback who shouldn’t start for another year or two. For that reason, take this mock draft not as a prediction of who will do what, but as an analysis of what each team needs to do.
Each pick is presented with my commentary and logic for why the team should pick that player, followed by a video of the player, followed by the notes I took when watching film of the player. Take it for what it’s worth, and if your criticism hinges on my mock draft looking different from everyone else’s, remember the supposed “experts” who said Jamarcus Russell would be the next John Elway. For further reading on why the Colts shouldn’t hesitate to choose Andrew Luck over Robert Griffin, feel free to read this article explaining the differences between the two quarterbacks. Enjoy!
1. Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck
QB, Stanford
I don’t care if Griffin theoretically has more upside than Luck; Luck has experience reading NFL-style defenses and calling his own plays. My biggest concern about Luck was the velocity on his passes, and he improved that in time for his pro day. He’ll probably never have phenomenal zip on his passes, but he now has enough to allow the rest of his skill set to shine.
Scouting Notes: His athleticism’s underrated, largely because the Luck vs. Griffin debate has been dumbed down to passing skills vs. athleticism when it’s much more complicated than that. He’s no Mike Vick, but if a defense doesn’t contain him he can pick up a few yards on the ground and is big enough to take the pounding that would result from doing so. Very good pocket presence, but he’d sometimes panic and abandon a clean pocket. Excellent job of moving safeties with his eyes. Very accurate thrower, especially when on the run. Does a superb job of squaring up his body to pass the ball when chased out of the pocket, and does so equally well when running to either the right or left. Merely a very above-average, but not elite, arm. Not the strongest arm, so he often underthrows deep balls. Definitely could improve his velocity on short passes, because in the NFL against faster defenses, defenders will swarm to softly thrown passes. However, his arm is adequate for the NFL level and the other aspects of his game make him the uncontested top pick. His quick progressions through reads, ability to look off safeties to get receivers open and his pocket presence combine with his athleticism to make him a tremendous prospect. His pre-snap reads and ability to audible into any play in the playbook after reading the defense gives his offense an advantage when he’s on the field, and that’s a trait NFL general managers can’t afford to bypass in favor of any other quarterback.
2. Washington Redskins
Robert Griffin
QB, Baylor
No. 2 is absolutely way too high to draft Griffin, but when you make a trade as huge as the Redskins’ trade with the Rams, you have no choice but to grab someone to advertise to your franchise as the team’s quarterback of the future.
Scouting Notes: Extremely fast, has great straight-line speed. Phenomenal spiral, anticipation and ball placement on deep passes. Doesn’t plant his feet well on short passes, leading to major misfires. Practically any throw to a receiver heading up the field will hit them right in stride. Hasn’t had to make throws into tight coverage or decipher complex coverages. Almost exclusively faced zone coverages because defenses couldn’t afford to have players turn their backs to him. Never really had to worry about linebackers in coverage because they were defending the run first and foremost. Adjusting to complex NFL defenses will be tough. Also, his speed will have less of an effect in the NFL because he’s a straight-line runner but when he leaves the pocket he doesn’t find a crease in the defense or make defenders miss. He just runs as fast as he can for a few yards most of the time. This lack of initial ability to make plays in the pocket with his feet will keep him from getting chances to really put that blazing 40 time to use.
3. Minnesota Vikings
Morris Claiborne
CB, Louisiana State
Offensive tackle Matt Kalil has phenomenal technique may be the popular pick here, but his lack of lateral speed will get him destroyed by faster pass rushers at the NFL level. Claiborne’s elite closing speed will help him get back to the ball while it’s in the air when he gets beaten, which will compensate for a lot of rookie struggles. He’s an instant starter and improvement to the Vikings’ secondary, which has been a weak spot for years.
Scouting Notes: Can turn his hips and run downfield with anyone. Not as physical as he could be at the line of scrimmage. Has excellent closing speed and if a receiver fools Claiborne with a good cut, Claiborne will be back on the receiver before the ball can get to him.
4. Cleveland Browns
Michael Brockers
DT, Louisiana State
The Browns could be tempted to get Trent Richardson to replace Peyton Hillis, but drafting a running back this highly is a short-term solution. Running backs’ careers are too short for Richardson to still be a high-impact player for the Browns by the time the team has a shot at making a deep playoff run. Richardson is the best player in the draft, but he can’t have a major impact on the team unless Colt McCoy starts actually playing like an NFL quarterback so defenses will stop putting eight men in the box to stuff Richardson. The Browns’ biggest deficiency that I saw when I watched them play was defensive tackle. They couldn’t get any push in the middle of the line. Brockers would draw double teams against most offensive lines, allowing the rest of the Browns’ defensive line to make plays.
Scouting Notes: Quick and agile for a defensive tackle. Stays with the play the entire time and won’t be fooled by trick plays. Gets lower than the offensive lineman, and gets great push with his legs, but doesn’t have the elite upper-body strength to always put the finishing touch on his attempt to get past a blocker. Great spin move. Plays with a relentless motor. Has the speed to be a major force in the pass rush, but needs to get stronger in his upper body before he can consistently shed tough run-blockers and have the type of impact on his team’s run defense that he’ll immediately have on his team’s pass defense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cordy Glenn
OT/OG, Georgia
Cordy Glenn is one of my favorite players in the draft. The Buccaneers’ biggest weakness, especially with Tanard Jackson’s release, is at safety. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, this draft is incredibly weak at the safety position. For this reason, the Buccaneers need to take a player who can be an asset for years to come, and has displayed the ability to play both tackle and guard at an extremely high level. Not as good of a tackle or as good of a guard as the top prospect at each position, but being the second-best player at both positions makes him a more valuable player due to his versatility.
Scouting Notes: Very good hand placement, extremely versatile and nimble for someone his size. Gets to the second level very well. Doesn’t get as low as he could, but natural strength and power make up for it.
6. St. Louis Rams
Justin Blackmon
WR, Oklahoma State
I’m not a huge Blackmon fan and think Michael Floyd could be a better NFL receiver. But the Rams are now coached by Jeff Fisher and still have Steven Jackson at running back, an unproven commodity at quarterback and a couple of tackling dummies at wide receiver, so it’s a good bet this team will be running the ball quite a bit for a couple of years. Blackmon is stronger than Floyd, so he makes more sense for the Rams’ philosophy. He won’t make a big improvement to the passing game, but he should make a solid contribution in run-blocking and catching slants.
Scouting Notes: Great size, very good speed. Holds onto the ball well when being hit as he catches the ball. Runs slant routes well, but that’s about it. He other routes he doesn’t make sharp cuts and drastically rounded off the cuts. Has the physical tools to dominate at the NFL level – great stiff arm, excellent speed and tremendous strength. His route running will set his development back though, because NFL cornerbacks who play off of him will have time to close in on his slow cuts once they see he isn’t running a go route. Easily the most talented receiver in the draft, and should be the first wideout drafted, but any team drafting him in the top 10 looking for an immediate boost to their offense might be reaching.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Whitney Mercilus
DE, Illinois
The Jaguars could use a pass rusher, and I like Mercilus quite a bit here. Their biggest position of need is at quarterback, but there’s nobody worth drafting this highly at that position. Mercilus is my favorite 4-3 defensive end and I think he’ll definitely help the Jaguars get to the quarterback more quickly.
Scouting Notes: Good burst coming off the snap of the ball. Maintains very good leverage when rushing the passé and going around the tackle’s outside shoulder. Has a very good sense of where the play is headed and immediately changes direction to take an angle on the ball-carrier.
8. Miami Dolphins
Michael Floyd
WR, Notre Dame
The Dolphins haven’t had a very good receiver in a while, and could change that with Floyd. Ryan Tannehill is the best quarterback remaining after Luck and Griffin, but he’s still a project quarterback who won’t be ready to start for at least another year or two. With Floyd, the Dolphins get an immediate contributor to their offense. Wide receiver was easily the worst position on the Dolphins’ depth chart last year, and the Dolphins may have had the NFL’s worst group of receivers. Floyd helps fix that.
Scouting Notes: Gets re-routed by more physical corners. Above average, though not elite, route-running, and has run a variety of routes in Notre Dame’s offense. Does a very good job of faking out defenders at the start of routes. Gets low in his stance. Not anywhere near as physically gifted as Blackmon, but has much better technique. Could utilize his technique and ability to get open and end up having a better career than Blackmon.
9. Carolina Panthers
Fletcher Cox
DT, Mississippi State
The Panthers were stellar on offense with Cam Newton, but absolutely horrendous on defense. The return of linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis should help shore up the defense a little bit (though Davis’ injury concern makes the linebacker position one that must be addressed in later rounds for depth purposes), but opposing offensive lines got great push on the left side when run-blocking. Cox should help make the defense much closer to being solid, and can start immediately.
Scouting Notes: Can play as a 4-3 defensive tackle or a 3-4 defensive end. Gets off the snap immediately and pursues the ball carrier relentlessly. Good but not great hand placement. Gets low and can get around offensive linemen, but doesn’t have the strength to bull-rush them.
10. Buffalo Bills
Jonathan Martin
OT, Stanford
The Bills can use a blindside protector here. Even though Kalil has better technique, his lack of agility will make it tough for him to pick up the quick blitzes that Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan will each send at the Bills’ offensive line two times per year. Martin has the size and strength to handle 3-4 defensive ends without trouble, and would be a solid starter at the position for years to come.
Scouting Notes: Plays with a high motor and intelligent, quick hand placement that allows him to get good leverage, even when he’s being pushed back. Occasionally beaten by explosively quick pas rushers or extremely strong byll rushers, but is a better well-rounded pass blocker than either Kalil or Reiff. Not fooled by spin moves. Struggles when assigned to block a defensive tackle that’s rushing the B-gap. Good recognition of stunts, not fooled easily. Doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as Kalil or Reiff, and can be a solid, though maybe not elite, left tackle at the NFL level.
11. Kansas City Chiefs
Luke Kuechly
ILB, Boston College
Kuechly’s simply a phenomenal prospect with excellent instincts who can also play pass coverage. He’d be the ideal fit for a Tampa-2 defense, but he’d be a great fit for Romeo Crennel’s 3-4 defense as well. This will add another weapon alongside Tamba Hali and Derrick Brooks, giving the Chiefs a fearsome linebacking corps.
Scouting Notes: Great instincts for where the play is headed. Good lateral speed and movements to get past blockers and avoid getting engaged by linemen. Has to speed to turn and run deep in pass coverage. Would be an ideal middle linebacker in a Tampa-2 defense.
12. Seattle Seahawks
David DeCastro
OG, Stanford
DeCastro’s simply too good to pass on at this point in the draft, and the Seahawks could use improvement at left guard.
Scouting Notes: Excellent hand placement, extremely skilled at steering the pass rusher out of the play. Good footwork and lateral movement. Pulls extremely quickly. Has a great instinct for finding defenders that need to be blocked. Gets to the second level of the defense quickly on run plays. Beats stronger players with solid technique. No holes in his game, is an excellent guard prospect.
13. Arizona Cardinals
Riley Reiff
OT, Iowa
Reiff is more of a mauling run-blocker than a finesse pass protector, so he’s a great fit for the Cardinals’ right tackle position. He’s my favorite run-blocker in the draft and will help shore up the Cardinals’ run game without a doubt.
Scouting Notes: Excellent strength. Gets low on run-blocking and keeps the hole open for long enough for the back to get through. His hand placement in pass protection could use improvement and he’s much better at creating leverage when run-blocking than pass-blocking. Great at getting through to the second level of the defense when pulling to either side of the line and pulls with above-average speed. Very strong pass-blocker, does not let pass rushers beat him inside but slow hands cause him to get beaten by quick pass rushers.
14. Dallas Cowboys
Janoris Jenkins
CB, North Alabama
Jenkins can immediately contribute in the nickel, and may even push for a starting spot. The Cowboys’ defensive backfield was awful last year, and Jenkins is the most talented defensive back aside from Claiborne in this draft.
Scouting Notes: Displays a good understanding of zone responsibilities. Is always there to hit the receiver as they try to catch the ball. Sheds blocker well when breaking up screen plays. Tends to look back to the quarterback too soon instead of watching the receiver’s eyes. Plays with very good technique.
15. Philadelphia Eagles
Courtney Upshaw
OLB, Alabama
The Eagles’ linebackers were their Achilles heel, and Upshaw is a dynamic, playmaking linebacker who was all over the field in every game he played. Re-watch him playing in the national title game. Upshaw’s ability to shut down the option and outside running game was a large part of the reason LSU’s offense couldn’t get going. This is the type of player the Eagles need, because the biggest reason the Eagles’ defense fell apart despite its talent is that the Eagles’ wide-9 defensive line alignment requires dynamic, playmaking linebackers who can shut down the run.
Scouting Notes: Recognizes plays and reacts quickly. Does an average job of shedding run blocks, but is an extremely instinctive player. Is always at the center of the action during a play. Above-average coverage speed.
16. New York Jets
Trent Richardson
RB, Alabama
Richardson is the complete package at running back, and a huge asset for a team that has no huge holes (aside from at quarterback) and looks to be trying to re-emphasize the run. If they’re going to have Tim Tebow running their Wildcat package 10-20 plays per game, a stud running back like Richardson will help boost that attack.
Scouting Notes: Excellent job changing direction without losing speed, power or balance. Sees holes quickly and gets to them when they open up. Isn’t too impatient to let the play develop. Allows his blockers to set up the run play for him. Very intelligent at picking up the blitz in pass protection. Good route-runner with nice hands, is very good at catching and securing the ball and then immediately turning upfield in one smooth motion. A more complete running back than Adrian Peterson was coming out of Oklahoma, but not as devastating of a runner. Will be an extremely good offensive weapon, but isn’t the type of running back who will instantly turn around a bad team.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland)
Dre Kirkpatrick
CB, Alabama
With all the attention Claiborne and Jenkins have been getting lately, Kirkpatrick must be playing Dr. Dre’s “Forgot About Dre” on repeat. The Bengals’ secondary is still looking to replace Jonathan Joseph, and Kirkpatrick is certainly a quality cornerback who has the potential to develop into a very good NFL corner.
Scouting Notes: Great closing speed and discipline in zone coverage. Great football instincts, and awesome technique when hitting. Doesn’t have the best leaping ability, but it is above adequate.
18. San Diego Chargers
Matt Kalil
OT, Southern California
Kalil has great technique and will be tasked with replacing Marcus McNeill. While Kalil’s lateral agility is a huge concern the supposed “experts” keep failing to mention, the Chargers’ biggest hole is at left tackle and they need to fill it here with the best remaining player at the position.
Scouting Notes: Doesn’t have great lateral speed. Very strong and does an exceptional job of using leverage and hand placement to beat pass rushers. Able to make up for his lack of speed in pass protection with a well-executed move in which he bumps the rusher looping around his outside shoulder with that shoulder, slowing the rusher down or knocking them off-course. That move won’t work against elite NFL blindside pass-rushers. Not a good run-blocker at all. Doesn’t get low when blocking in the run game, doesn’t knock defenders back off the line of scrimmage and doesn’t maintain his blocks for anywhere near long enough. Strength allowed him to overpower weaker opponents in the run game, but NFL defensive linemen will have no problem getting past him on run plays.
19. Chicago Bears
Mychal Kendricks
ILB, California
The Bears will be extremely lucky to get a hold of Kendricks, who is an athletic playmaker with very good play recognition. He can develop on the bench a little bit, but he’s good enough to start in a pinch if one of the Bears’ aging linebackers gets hurt this year.
Scouting Notes: Great pursuit speed. Doesn’t fall for play fakes. Tackles well. He isn’t as fundamentally sound as Kuechly, but will be a great consolation prize for anyone looking for a linebacker after Kuechly gets drafted.
20. Tennessee Titans
Kevin Zeitler
OG, Wisconsin
The Titans needed better blocking from the interior offensive line, and Zeitler is the man for the job. He’s a great physical run-blocker, which Titans coach – and Hall of Fame offensive guard – Mike Munchak will love.
(Zeitler doesn’t have a snap-by-snap video on YouTube, but he is No. 70, the right guard in this video)
Scouting Notes: Great job of getting his feet set and delivering a powerful block after pulling. Absolutely devastating run blocker. A bit slow-footed as a pass blocker, but his technique and strength make up for it. In a class clearly below DeCastro and Glenn, but not by much. Would be a great mid- to late first-round pick.
21. Cincinnati Bengals
Kendall Wright
WR, Baylor
Wright is a great fit for Cincinnati’s offense as a major weapon in the slot. An explosive slot receiver would add a spark to Cincinnati’s offense, as Andy Dalton’s arm is best suited for throwing precise strikes on short routes that allow the receiver to pick up yards after the catch.
Scouting Notes: Makes great adjustments on the ball when it’s in the air. Makes good cuts and has great instincts for finding holes in the defense and adjusting accordingly on his routes. Awesome speed, but definitely too small to be an outside receiver. Would create huge mismatches from the slot though, especially after taking some time to adjust to NFL defenses.
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta)
Jerel Worthy
DT, Michigan State
The Browns need to double down on the interior defensive line after getting Brockers with the No. 4 pick. Worthy can develop into a solid player who can add that element for them.
Scouting Notes: Good acceleration off the line of scrimmage. Gets steered out of the play by offensive linemen with better hand placement or leverage than his. Good raw talent, but won’t have a big impact immediately.
23. Detroit Lions
Doug Martin
RB, Boise State
Detroit Lions, Doug Martin, RB, Boise State – With Jahvid Best’s concussion issues, it looks a lot like he can’t carry a starting workload in the NFL. Martin is an exciting runner who will benefit greatly from the Lions spreading the field with their shotgun passing attack.
Scouting Notes: Great initial burst. Has good vision for holes opening up farther downfield, but will occasionally get greedy trying to get to the next level to make that big play instead of taking what the defense is giving him. Generally a good decision-maker though. Changes direction very quickly without losing speed. Has the breakaway speed to be a home run threat every time he touches the ball. Not a typical big, between-the-tackles runner, but his combination of playing low, getting through the hole quickly and tendency to lower his shoulder to brace for (and sometimes bounce off of) hits will allow him to pick up yards up the middle in the NFL.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers
Vinny Curry
DE, Marshall
Curry has the size to play as a 3-4 defensive end, and the Steelers are getting old up front. A presence like Curry would help keep the defense from falling apart like it did against the Broncos in the playoffs.
Scouting Notes: Has the size to play as a 3-4 DE, but the versatility to slide inside on pass-rushing downs. Plays with a non-stop motor and always pursues the ball-carrier. His hand placement and leverage pass-rushing the outside line could use some work, but he has a great swim move that’ll allow him to shoot the B gap on the offensive line.
25. Denver Broncos
Peter Konz
C, Wisconsin
If you’re going all-in on an old and injury-rehabbing Peyton Manning, you’d better make sure you protect him. Konz is the best remaining offensive lineman in this mock draft, so he’ll help keep Manning’s jersey clean and, more importantly, help pave holes for the people to whom Manning hands the ball.
Scouting Notes: Gets low, maintains great leverage. Doesn’t alays get great push off the ball, but does so for the most part. Gets to the second level and delivers very good hits when he gets there. Steers defenders away from the running lane. Holds his own in pass blocking but will struggle against large nose tackles with a good swim move.
26. Houston Texans
Melvin Ingram
OLB, South Carolina
Ingram won’t be expected to singlehandedly replace Mario Williams, but he will add a weapon to defensive coordinator Wade Phillips’ pass-rushing arsenal and has the versatility to play in coverage, too.
Scouting Notes: Has enough speed to cover the flats in the NFL. Solid play recognition. Doesn’t have excellent closing speed. Good strength and hand placement when pass rushing.
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans)
Jared Crick
DE, Nebraska
Crick has the versatility that Bill Belichick loves in players. With a strict coach like Belichick getting him out of his habit of extending his arms too far, Crick can develop into an excellent 3-4 defensive end at the NFL level.
Scouting Notes: Extends his arms too far away from his body frequently, but his strength compensates for the power lost by doing so. Has a unique combination of size and speed that will make him a very versatile defensive lineman at the NFL level.
28. Green Bay Packers
Zebrie Sanders
OT, Florida State
The Packers had difficulties protecting Aaron Rodgers at times last year, and with this pick can add a solid pass protector who has shown versatility in his college career.
Scouting Notes: Played most of his career at right tackle before switching to the left side for the last seven games of his career. Displayed a remarkable instinct for the left side given his lack of experience at the position. Possesses above-average lateral speed and gets low quickly in both run and pass blocking. Not elite in any aspect of his game but a very solid pick.
29. Baltimore Ravens
Quinton Coples
DE, North Carolina
Coples isn’t a consistently great pass rusher, but could definitely put on a little weight and be a great run-stopper and gap occupier in a 3-4 system like the Ravens’.
Scouting Notes: Very strong, uses his hand placement and leverage to get inside the offensive tckle. Doesn’t have great initial burst or closing speed. Lacks a good move to get back to the quarterback after being steered to the outside. Would be a better run defender and overall defensive end than a pure pass rusher.
30. San Francisco 49ers
Coby Fleener
TE, Stanford
Give the 49ers another tight end who can do absolutely everything on the football field, and all of the sudden their offense creates all the mismatches the Patriots’ offense did last year with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Alex Smith is no Tom Brady, but he’ll certainly be able to put up Brady-like numbers with this potent of a supporting cast.
Scouting Notes: Exactly what you want in a run-blocker. Has great hand placement, does great job of quickly getting to the second level and putting a strong block on a linebacker. Doesn’t get the timing of his route disrupted when bumped at the line of scrimmage. Flexed out wide frequently in college; has played all over the field. Has a great combination of size, speed, and hands that could create some nice mismatches against most defenses.
31. New England Patriots
Josh Robinson
CB, Central Florida
The Patriots lack speed in the defensive backfield, and Robinson offers that. It’s unrealistic to picture Belichick actually sticking with this pick instead of trading it for multiple picks to someone who wants to trade back into the first round. But it’s pointless to make a prediction of a specific team that would trade to this spot, so I’ll go with who would be the best pick for the Patriots here.
Scouting Notes: Great change of direction. Backpedals well, but is a bit slow in opening his hips. Not a great tackler and is kind of small, so he may struggle against bigger receivers, but won’t get beaten deep.
32. New York Giants
Shea McClellin
OLB/DE, Boise State
New York Giants, Shea McClellin, DE, Boise State – Osi Umenyiora’s unhappy with his contract, and the Giants can never have enough pass rushers. This match makes too much sense not to happen.
Scouting Notes: A ferocious rusher off the edge. Can immediately come in as part of a defensive line rotation and have an instant impact.