We all know the story. We all know what looms in the shadows. We all know the name of the school, the name of the team, the history of the program. We all know the ranking. We all know the meaning of the game.
The Missouri Tigers know what awaits them in this Saturday’s SEC Championship game in Atlanta. And it’s going to take the toughest fight in Mizzou sports history to come away with a win and prove all of the doubters wrong.
No pressure.
Shane Ray and the Tiger pass rush could help Mizzou upset the Tide. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
So what three things does Mizzou have to do to vanquish the Tide, to conquer Goliath and to win the SEC?
Now, I know what you’re thinking…
How in the world can we possibly pick only three? It wasn’t easy. That’s because Missouri must be 100 percent at the top of its game if it wants to upset the 14-point favorite Crimson Tide in the Georgia Dome. But these are the three things that, if done right, will help Mizzou secure one of the greatest shockers in college football history.
But to humor many a nervous Tiger fan, we’ll outline a few “honorable mention” keys to victory, mostly with regards to the offense side of things.
Missouri must find a way to take advantage of the weakness in Alabama’s secondary. We will touch more on this tomorrow in our official game preview and predictions. But Mizzou does have an opportunity to go vertical against Alabama. But it will only come to fruition if Mizzou A) runs the ball loyally B) Gets protection for quarterback Maty Mauk and C) Uses Mauk’s mobility as an asset.
To me, this is kind of an a great formula in this game. Run to set up the pass + Pass to set up the QB Run + Use Running back and mobile quarterback variables to set up the deep pass = score points against Alabama. Let’s be blunt here, too. Mizzou will have to score many points against Bama.
Mizzou will benefit from Mauk’s performance through the air and on the ground. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
As we saw in the Ole Miss game, the best way to score points against Bama is to throw confusing and unexpected plays and formations against the Tide. Mix it up. Be balanced. Be unexpected. But you have to score.
While I fully trust the Tiger defense to fair much, much better than it did in last season’s SEC Championship, where they surrendered 59 points to Auburn, I also fully expect Bama to break at least two or three big plays. Having wide receiver Amari Cooper almost guarantees that. MU will have to get to at least 28 points if it wants to win this game.
Now that we’ve gone over all of this, let’s cut to the chase. Depending on what kind of game either team brings, it’s very possible that we’re talking about a neck and neck game. It’s also very possible that we’re talking about a merciless absolute obliteration by the Tide.
Here are three things MU must do to reach the former scenario and avoid the latter:
Take Advantage of EVERY Red Zone Opportunity:
Bend but don’t break. It’s a common phrase that can be used to describe many defenses in the game of football. They allow drives, but they don’t give up the points. That’s Alabama.
The Tide do give up the occasional big pass play, thanks in large part to the inexperienced defensive secondary. But when the opponent is in within striking distance, Bama is as stiff as they come. The Tide allow their opponent to score a touchdown on just 37.8 percent of their trips into the red zone. They are particularly good at goal line stands–and keep in mind, Missouri has won twice this year with a goal line score late in the game. Bama is tough down there.
But for Missouri, scoring in these situations is their specialty. While the Tiger offense hasn’t exactly been prolific this season, they are, in fact, the SEC’s best red zone offense, scoring points on 92.1 percent of trips inside the 20 yard-line. Helping them rank first in this department is the fact that they come away with touchdowns 66 percent of the time they get the ball in the red zone. This will be key in this game. The Tigers must keep this trend going. It will be difficult against the Tide. But Missouri has to take advantage of the field position opportunities if it wants to come out as the winner here.
Get After the Bama QB:
Forcing the talented but young QB Sims to make mistakes will be vital in helping the TIgers stay in this one. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
We’ve seen remarkable success at the pass rush from Missouri this year. And this game must be no different. Defensive ends Shane Ray and Markus Golden have tormented offensive lines this season and they’ve gotten help from their talented defensive tackles. This may be the area of the game that could have the single biggest impact on this championship for MU.
While Cooper and running back T.J. Yeldon are the stars, in 2014 for the Crimson Tide, how quarterback Blake Sims goes, so goes their offense. The Freshman quarterback has shown flashes of brilliance this season and he is talented, no doubt. But he’s still teething. The young signal caller is very prone to making mistakes and has been a much different performer away from the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny stadium.
Sims will throw that costly interception. And even though he’s mobile, he’s no wizard in the backfield when there’s consistent pressure. If Missouri can apply that pressure like its done all season, the Tigers could set their offense up with good field position and it could be the ultimate deciding factor in helping them win.
The Offensive Line Can Make or Break The Game For The Tigers:
The team cannot make stupid mistakes across the broad in terms of penalties as it has done in recent weeks (Get this: Mizzou has had 10 or penalties in five straight games. That’s outrageous).
The offensive line has been mostly to blame for these penalties, and it’s shown just how poorly disciplined the team is. That cannot happen here. Bama will rip you apart and make you pay for every one of those mistakes.
South Bound & Down
The eyes of everyone should be planted squarely on this offensive line in this game. Alabama’s defensive strength is certainly in the pass rush. Protecting Maty Mauk on pass plays is the tall task the O-line will face. And we’ve seen in the past under Nick Saban that Bama can be beaten if its defensive pressure is held off.
Creating holes for running backs Marcus Murphy and Russell Hansbrough will also be key. Missouri’s run game will be crucial if they want to be able to set up the deep pass plays. If Missouri stands any shot at winning this game, the Offensive line will have to shine in this one.
So there they are. The “three” keys to victory over Alabama. As mentioned before, Missouri will have to do a lot more than just those three things. But these components are the most important. If they can force the quarterback to make mistakes, slow down Alabama’s defensive pressure and take advantage of prime opportunities, this team could stay in this game and even pull off the upset.