This preview was written collaboratively by the Truman’s Tales staff members Derek Franks (DF), Ben Brown (BB) and Ron Davis (RD)
————————————————————————————————-
The Intro [DF]:
In its second straight SEC Championship appearance, Missouri returns to Atlanta to avenge itself against the state of Alabama, a task far easier said than done.
Gary Pinkel has coached the Tigers to their second straight SEC Championship. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
While Auburn torched them on the ground in last year’s conference finale, this year will look unequivocally different than the contest a year ago. This time around the opponent can beat you multiple ways. This time around, it’s Nick Saban and Co. in a game where all eyes will be focused squarely on college football’s premier conference.
What’s on the line? For Bama, a sure spot in the top four playoff for a chance at the national championship. For Missouri– that reality may be more of a fantasy. But don’t discredit what’s at stake for the Tigers. A win in this game would officially put Mizzou on the map in the SEC and earn the respect they’ve been trying earn long before they even joined this conference. But most importantly, it will prove MU belongs in this almighty Southeastern conference.
Are the Missouri Tigers up to the task? Our panel analyzes this ultra-important game, from the key players, to the match ups to the predictions. Here’s how Saturday’s showdown in the Georgia Dome looks to play out:
The Matchup: No. 1 Alabama (11-1, 8-1) vs. No. 16 Missouri (10-2, 8-1)
Venue: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
Kickoff time/Television: 3:00 p.m. CST, CBS
Vegas Line: Alabama by 14.5 points
The Game:
Nov 28, 2014; Columbia, MO, USA; Missouri Tigers quarterback Maty Mauk (7) takes a snap during the first half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Faurot Field. Missouri won 21-14. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
The Tigers come into their second consecutive championship on a roll, winners of their final six games, en route to the SEC East division title– one in which they had to win out their last three games to clinch. Missouri forced Georgia, who berated the Tigers 34-0 earlier in the season, to sit at home and hope for a Missouri loss, one that never came.
During that stretch, Missouri became the best 4th quarter team in the SEC, making timely plays, scoring on game winning drives late in the game not once, not twice, not three times but four times in the last six games. This ability to play with the game on the line will certainly be crucial for this game. But the slow starts we’ve been accustomed to seeing cannot happen here.
Alabama– we all know the story. Consistently ranked in the top 5 in college football in the last five years, the Crimson Tide roll into Atlanta as one of the toughest teams in the country. Led by the genius of head coach Nick Saban, and run by a star-studded cast, Bama is the juggernaut that Tiger fans fear they are. But they can be beaten. They have a young and inexperienced quarterback in Blake Sims who has been known to make mistakes. And they have a defensive secondary that’s struggled. Missouri can take advantage of these components and put itself in a position to win.
SCOUTING THE CRIMSON TIDE [BB]:
Blake Sims, Quarterback
Strengths: The Alabama Quarterback has tremendous physical talent. He is a former running back and because of that he has great speed and is very elusive even though he has a lack of height for a prototypical quarterback. The Alabama offense has evolved over the course of the season to fit his skill set. He specializes in rollouts and bootlegs as well as the play action. He can easily get into rhythm and get on a roll. His poise is incredible considering his lack of starting experience and is very good in the fourth quarter.
Weaknesses: Sims’ has a tendency to make poor decisions even when not under pressure. He has extreme faith in his arm and will try to make plays that aren’t always possible. His accuracy over about 15 yards also can come into question and because he is new to the position, his mechanics are questionable a lot. One of his most major flaws that I’ve seen however is he has a tendency to telegraph his throws.
Amari Cooper, Wide Receiver
Strengths: Cooper is currently ranked as the #1 receiver in the nation and for good reason. He’s an explosive receiver with good burst that can reach top speed very quickly with good separation skills even in press coverage. He has adequate size and very good leaping ability with the ability to go over defenders to get passes. He has amazing body control to go with excellent hand-eye coordination. Cooper has great durability as well. He’s consistently a threat for a big play and has a knack for the spectacular catch. To say he is the catalyst for the Alabama offense is an understatement. Should be a top 5 pick in the 2015 NFL draft.
Weaknesses: Cooper has a tendency to freelance his routes a bit and will cause a disconnect with his quarterback on occasion. Also, his hands are strong but will inexplicably drop balls every once in awhile.
Nov 29, 2014; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver Amari Cooper (9) catches a touchdown pass in the third quarter past Auburn Tigers defensive back Jonathon Mincy (6) at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Cam Robinson, Offensive Tackle
Strengths: Robinson wasn’t ranked the best high school recruit in the nation in 2013 by accident. The true freshman has incredible size for an 18 year old standing 6’6 and tipping the scale at 323 pounds. His raw power is outstanding as well as his initial punch. He is strong on the block and will try to finish through on every defender. Even though he plays heavy he is deceptively quick on his feet with sudden movements and takes great angles on his blocks.
His hands are violent and is strong for his age in his mechanics. His best trait is his passion. He displays a nasty streak and will consistently be seen sprinting either along side or right behind running backs when they break a long touchdown. He’s been the best offensive lineman on the Alabama line this year and in 2 years he will be in the conversation for the 1st overall selection in the 2017 draft.
Weaknesses: Robinson needs to work on his flexibility. His ability to go backwards or laterally while maintaining steady balance is lacking and can be overpowered with speed. He also needs work on his range of motion in his lower body. This causes him to come off blocks occasionally as well as lose his balance. Robinson is also very young so will make young mistakes occasionally.
Alabama Defensive Key Players—
Trey DePriest, Linebacker
Strengths: DePriest is the leader of the Alabama defense both on and off the field. The Senior calls plays for the defense as well as gets everyone lined up in the correct spot. He’s very smart and has the ability to play both inside and outside. He has very good instincts and is a force in the run game. Also has good power.
Weaknesses: He’s not very fast for a linebacker. Agility is not amazing and will get exposed in coverage by faster tight ends and slot receivers.
Landon Collins, Safety
Collins is one of the nation’s premier defensive backs. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Strengths: Collins is one of the best safeties in the nation. He’s a versatile player with good size for the position. He play and the box and can usually hold his own as a centerfielder in the deep safety role. Has great tackling ability and will wrap up rather than go for a big hit. Has good speed and will fly all over the field as well as fluid in space. Also is a good special teamer which will help at the next level. Likely a first round draft choice in the 2015 NFL draft.
Weaknesses: Will have lapses in deep coverage and instincts have been questioned. His awareness is also not always the best especially in coverage.
Nick Perry, Safety
Strengths: Similar to Collins (as well as most Alabama safeties) in that he can both play in the box or deep. Has very good range as well as good form when tackling. Takes very good angles to the ball and is a leader on defense. Is very clutch and will make plays when it matters. Solid in most areas of his game.
Weaknesses: Awareness can be a problem as well as it doesn’t seem like he is consistently around the ball unlike his safety counterpart however that’s been changing over the last few games.
SCOUTING THE TIGERS [BB]:
Missouri Key Offensive Players–
Russell Hansbrough & Marcus Murphy, Running Backs
Reason:
The run game will be crucial in this upcoming game. In the Iron Bowl last week Alabama gave up the highest yards-per-carry (3.7) they’ve given up all season. In order to win Mizzou will have to follow the offensive blueprint created by Auburn. Hansborough is quick and elusive as well as strong but is definitely a smaller back. Murphy has breakaway speed but is not thick enough to run between the tackles. Even though both backs have their flaws, between the two of them they need to run the ball effectively in order to be able to have a chance at overcoming the Alabama defense.
Nov 28, 2014; Columbia, MO, USA; Missouri Tigers running back Russell Hansbrough (32) runs the ball during the first half against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Faurot Field. Missouri won 21-14. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Taylor Chappell, Connor McGovern & Mitch Hall, Offensive Line
Reason:
After getting eaten alive by Trey Flowers this past week, Chappell will need to have an excellent week of practice to prove his worth. The entire game changed the second he got replaced in the second half when Connor McGovern shifted over to right tackle and Mitch Hall came in at right guard.
Even though it may seem that Chappell may have the edge on the starting position because of his success in pass protection but I think Mitch Hall might be coming in early and often. As I previously mentioned Auburn figured out that Alabama can be suspect in both the run game and in their secondary especially with deep passes in man coverage. That being said, Mitch Hall and McGovern make for a much more dominant run game and the Tigers need the game to look like the 2nd half of the Arkansas game, not the first.
Maty Mauk, Quarterback
Reason:
Mauk is the guy. Everything rests on his shoulders. He needs to control the game and get first downs consistently. Making good decisions is crucial and if he does screw up, Alabama is extremely opportunistic and excellent at capitalizing on mistakes. Maty Mauk will have to have the biggest and most flawless game of his short career if he wants to carry Mizzou to an SEC championship.
Missouri Key Defensive Players–
Aarion Penton, Cornerback
Reason:
Penton will almost definitely draw the short straw this weekend and will be the one having to cover (and I use that term lightly) Amari Cooper. Cooper is the best receiver in the nation and can beat basically anyone one on one in the college game. Penton will really need to use his speed and instincts to keep up with him. If Penton can have success against Cooper, that is a complete game changer for the Tigers. Penton and/or Kenya Dennis not getting schooled by Cooper is a must if the Tigers plan to win.
Braylon Webb, Safety
Reason:
Webb is the leader of the secondary. He relies heavily on his instincts and ball skills, which help him with getting interceptions. He currently is leading the team with 4 interceptions. He’s become a clutch player coming up with picks when Mizzou needs him most however he will never be forgotten after he botched the hold in the South Carolina game in 2013 that could’ve potentially cost Mizzou a perfect season.
South Bound & Down
In addition to his instincts, his deep coverage will be heavily tested this week with the excellent wide receiver core of Alabama led by Amari Cooper. Webb will be consistently helping over the top against Cooper who is always a threat with his incredible agility and speed. Webb will need to work in tandem with the corners this week to be able to stop a high powered Alabama offense.
Shane Ray & Markus Golden, Defensive Ends
Reason:
Bluntly, Mizzou needs to get to the quarterback to be able to win and these two guys are the guys to do it. Shane Ray has almost cemented himself as a top 10 pick in the 2015 draft. Markus Golden, who is coming off back-to-back SEC defensive player of the week performances, should also be in consideration for a first round selection. Forcing Sims under pressure and making him uncomfortable is going to be crucial to the tiger’s game plan.
In addition, containing Sims and not letting him out of the pocket will be a main job of these two talented defensive ends. Sims loves to run and does his best work outside of the pocket so keeping him in it and forcing him to rely solely on his arm can change the game. Shane Ray has incredible quickness and will likely be matched up against Cam Robinson who is battling an ankle injury.
The matchup will be fascinating to watch to see if Shane Ray with his speed and his arsenal of moves can overpower the all-freshman left tackle. On the other side Golden should be trying to cause some havoc against Austin Shepherd, which also won’t be an easy task. Ray and Golden are the best players on the Missouri team and they need to step up if they want to lead their team to victory.
The Tigers Will Win If [RD]:
Maty Mauk can play the way he’s been playing the last couple of weeks. Mauk will need to make more than a couple big plays with his arm and his legs, and he has to be smart when to try and make those plays. The Tigers will try and pound the ball, but how well Mauk plays will determine the winner. On defense, Shane Ray, Markus Golden, and the rest of the Tiger d-line need to put constant pressure on Blake Sims. Auburn proved last week that Sims can be a bit erratic when he’s under duress. They also need to win the turnover battle and keep the bevy of playmakers Alabama has on offense off the field.
Nov 22, 2014; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban during the game against the Western Carolina Catamounts at Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Crimson Tide defeated the Catamounts 48-14. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
The Crimson Tide Will Win If:
They can make big plays against the Tiger defense. Missouri has done a good job of not giving up the big play, and it usually takes a long methodical drive to score points on that defense. However if Amari Cooper, TJ Yeldon, and Derrick Henry are breaking off big gains, Missouri’s defense will have trouble getting off the field and giving the ball back to their offense. Defensively, if they can take away the Tigers running game and force Mauk into third-and-long situations, it could be a long day for the Missouri offense.
Panel Predictions:
Derek’s Take: This is one of those games that will be closer than the experts think. Missouri has the defensive capability to at least slow Bama’s offense down. I expect the young UA quarterback Blake Sims to make a couple of mistakes and for Missouri to capitalize on some big turnovers that keep this game close. I also like the possibility of Mizzou making some big pass plays of its own. But in the end, the onslaught of talent from Crimson Tide wide receivers and running backs will be too much to handle. My thoughts on this game are that Missouri must score at least 28 points in this game and I just don’t know if they can do it. On top of that, we have a coaching match up of Nick Saban vs. Gary Pinkel. And the way Pinkel has mismanaged some games this year, I think Saban out wits him here. Pick: Alabama 31, Missouri 27. -DF
Ron’s Take: This will be a very hard-fought game between two physical teams. Though Missouri has done a good job defensively this year, they haven’t seen a group of playmakers like Alabama has in its arsenal. Amari Cooper is the best wide receiver in the country, and Blake Sims will get the ball in his hands as much as he can.
Though Alabama gave up 44 points to Auburn last week, it was an aberration because their defense has not given up more than 23 points prior to last Saturday’s contest. In the end, Sims has more weapons at his disposal than Maty Mauk and ultimately that will be the difference to decide the SEC champion. Pick: Alabama 31, Missouri 20 -RD
Ben’s Take: Mizzou will have a tough time in this game. Alabama really is one of the most special teams in the nation. They’re unbelievably well coached, they are disciplined, and worst of all, talented. When I watched some game tape of this past weeks’ Iron Bowl, even when they were down against Auburn and Auburn was consistently driving on their defense, their offense had the firepower to keep up.
Then, when their defense started to force mistakes and get some good plays, the offense was enough of a force to not take their foot off the gas. They truly are very impressive. That being said, Mizzou has 4 things that could potentially make them a threat to Alabama’s playoff chances: Maty Mauk, The best defensive end pairing in the nation, fantastic special teams and Dave Steckel. Still, Mizzou is good, Bama is Better. Pick: Alabama 37, Missouri 26