The Missouri Tigers didn’t blink an eye this season picking up where they left off a year ago. 2014 was, in many ways, a direct reflection of 2013. There were the amazing, unforgettable game finishes. There were the odds-defying shining moments. There were heartbreaking losses. And the sensational victories.
Tack on comebacks, over coming the odds and spitting in the face of almost every single college football expert or predictor, and you have for yourself yet another monumentally memorable year for Missouri Tigers football.
At the same time, 2014 has almost been more than a mirror reflection, a parallel. It’s been more than a carbon copy. It’s complimented last season’s success. It’s taken it to another level. In some ways, its hard parts hurt a little more than last years’. The bumps in the road left bruises. But those bruises were just a sign of a budding young team which perhaps played far beyond its years this season.
A second consecutive East Division title and SEC Championship appearance are proof of that.
We needn’t debate which broke Tiger fans’ hearts more: last year’s double over time loss to South Carolina or this years stunning defeat at the hands of Indiana. Those times are past.
Bring in the new year. By gametime, the New York ball is dropped. And for the Missouri Tigers, an exhilarating 2014 season will come to a close on the other side of the beginning of a young 2015.
Bring on the Minnesota Golden Gophers. This team is no joke. It is no fluke. Be fooled not by the mystique of the Big 10 or the lack of offensive explosiveness. This team can flat out play.
For just the 7th time in the history of history, the Missouri Tigers and the Minnesota Golden Gophers will meet for a New Years day showdown in the 2014 Citrus Bowl. Here’s everything you need to know to get you ready for this juicy match up:
Game: No. 16 Missouri (10-3, 8-2 SEC) vs. No. 25 Minnesota (9-3, 6-2 Big 10)
Time/Television/Venue: January 1, 12 p.m., ABC, Citrus Bowl in Orlando Florida
Vegas Line: Missouri by 6.5
Scouting the Missouri Tigers:
Mizzou has continued its remarkable stretch of exceeding expectations by sticking to the script: play solid– if not outstanding– defense, control ball possession, keep the game close, then win it late. That’s been the hallmark of the team for all of 2014, but especially in the last half, where the team closed the regular season with a 6-game winning streak.
It’s been an uncanny run of consistency, broken only by the Florida game in which the same script presented itself, but the Tigers’ special team’s, and special team’s SEC player of the year Marcus Murphy, exploded to add extra mustard to an impressive road win.
Even against Alabama in the SEC Championship, Mizzou did the exact same progression. Had it not been for a couple of boneheaded mistakes and the loss of a key player, it could have been an SEC Title.
There’s no question, Mizzou’s key to success has been the defense, which ranks in the top 15 of the country in adjusted stats (the stats adjusted for opponent, significant down and significant moments of the game). Led by SEC Defensive player of the year and All-American Shane Ray, and his defensive end counterpart Markus Golden, Mizzou has beaten and battered opponents in the trenches, tormented quarterbacks and kept big pass plays at bay thanks to surprisingly good coverage to compliment the pass rush.
On offense, Missouri hasn’t been as prolific as in recent years, but part of that is due to its incredible youth and injuries over the course of the season. That crutch could be an issue in this game. With the injured wide receiver Jimmie Hunt out, the team will be especially thin at the receiver position, with a make up of all freshmen and sophomores after senior Bud Sasser.
But the team is still talented. Recruiting high quality players, and turning medium-quality players into high quality, has set the team up for success in the Citrus Bowl. In my eyes, if this exact same team had another year of experience on all of its players and had no injuries, the team would be a national title contender.
Scouting the Minnesota Golden Gophers:
Where Minnesota lacks outrageous talent across the board, the Gophers make up for it with experience, discipline and coaching. They have arrived at this juncture much in the same way the Tigers have, exceeding the expectations of everyone (no one can say they had the Gophers pinned for a New Year’s day Bowl, they would be liars), playing the toughest teams close and remaining consistent throughout the year.
Like Mizzou, the Gophers rely heavily on the defense. They are a tough group, especially at the defensive front. The team ranks in the top 40 in tackles for a loss, and in the top 20 at stopping the run all together. They don’t allow big runs, so it will be up to the crippled offense to try to beat the Gophers in the pass, although one could argue that the better option is to be loyal to the run, regardless.
Offensively, Minnesota is similar to Missouri’s but not exactly the same. The Gophers come armed with this guy named David Cobb, a juggernaut of a running back who displays all of the fine qualities that Mizzou has struggled with this season. The thousand-yard rusher can single-handedly win games.Mizzou must be at its absolute best if its going to win this game.
Minnesota has a formidable quarterback who will beat you with the draw and run the ball himself. Minnesota doesn’t do small quick outs through the air either. It’s go big or go home, and the Tigers will have to have top notch coverage in this one. All in all, these teams are fairly evenly matched and it’s going to come down to who wins it at the line of scrimmage.
Key Match Up To Watch:
Minnesota’s Run Blocking Vs. Mizzou’s Defensive Line-
David Cobb is the centerpiece to Minnesota’s offense, but where these two teams are the most evenly matched is on the line of scrimmage, particularly when the Gophers have the ball. The Missouri Tigers’ defensive front going up against the gophers offensive line is the biggest toss up in this game.
The key will be when Minnesota does run the ball. The offensive line is one of the biggest reasons Cobb can be so explosive. Minnesota ranks 16th in adjusted stats for offensive line yards. That will wind up being the the third-best offensive line the Tigers have faced this year, behind only Alabama and Arkansas. This will be the match up to keep your eyes on. If Mizzou can use its defensive line strengths that it’s had all season long, it could be the ultimate battle of forces.
The Missouri Tigers Will Win If:
Two things: if they can get their running game going on offense– which will be tough but necessary– and if they can win two of the four match ups at the line of scrimmage. Those four line match ups are, the Mizzou offensive front against the Minnesota D-Line when the Tigers run (1) and when they pass (2) and the Minnesota offensive front against the Mizzou D-line when the Gophers run (3) and when they pass (4). Got it?
If Mizzou can win two of these four battles, I think they win the game and I say that with pretty good confidence.
South Bound & Down
The Minnesota Golden Gophers Will Win If:
Cobb just runs all over the Tigers. It can happen. If Mizzou has one of those days where they can’t stop the big back, I can’t see Missouri hanging in there. There will need to be some sort of slowing down this beast. There’s a gigantic difference between the ways win which a running back can have a 100+-yard game. Does he do it all at once on a few big plays, or does he punish you over and over again throughout the game?
He’s a freight train. If the Gophers book a ticket or two to the end zone from a long distance away, that will be ok. But if he runs for 150 yards and does so with 10 yards per carry, it will be a long day for Mizzou.
Prediction:
I expect this game to go much like last year’s Cotton Bowl game for the Tigers, if only lower scoring. As much confidence I have in Minnesota’s star running back, I just can’t see Mizzou’s defense being beaten like that. The Tigers have had too much time to prepare and they know what they’re getting into (as to where Indiana’s running back hadn’t broken out yet, and Georgia’s running back was suspended and no one knew how good the back up was).
This game could have the potential to be that low scoring, tough it out game. But who has exact control of the game near the end could be the difference. This will be back and forth for three and three-fourths quarters, with a close or tie game late, then the Tigers will lean on their defense to make a big play in the game’s final sequences pushing Mizzou over the edge. Pick: Missouri 27- Minnesota 24
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