The 20-10 Missouri Tigers will head into their season finale against No. 20 Arkansas firmly on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. After a demoralizing blowout loss to Oklahoma, the Tigers leave the door just slightly open for potential disappointment in their postseason dreams. Still, Dennis Gates and Mizzou are confident in their resume, and even a loss to end the season won't put their tournament hopes in jeopardy.
"Wins above bubble is the matrix at which the committee will continue to talk about," said Gates regarding the Tigers tournament chances. "And right now, we're 37th in the country in that. And we're tied 29th nationally with 10 combined Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins."
Missouri currently ranks 60th in the NET rankings, far from where they would like to be, but wins above the bubble is growing in influence among committee members, and Mizzou makes a strong case based on that metric.
Has Missouri done enough to cement their spot in the NCAA Tournament?
Despite the Tigers weak non-conference schedule, they've impressed in SEC play. At 10-7, including wins over teams like Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Tennessee, Mizzou has shown they can play with the big dogs on any given night. Their 9-10 record in Quad 1 and 2 games won't jump off the page, but it's certainly enough to get them into the Big Dance regardless of what happens with Arkansas.
Take a look at the quality of Missouri's wins compared to that of their losses. As far as at-large bids are concerned, Mizzou is well above most of their fellow bubble-dwellers like Indiana, USC and Auburn. Some blowout losses to Illinois and Kansas aren't helping their cause, but they haven't pulled down the Tigers' chances quite enough just yet.
RESUME QUALITY
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 6, 2026
Here is every team's Win Quality (Y axis) compared to their Loss Quality (X axis), using the Resume Quality metric at https://t.co/cegyfz8ykZ👇 pic.twitter.com/tw4JquZgP0
The Tigers went 11-0 in Quad 3 and 4 games, and have done some damage to top-25 teams as well. A win against Arkansas will almost surely remove all doubt. But even a loss likely won't be enough to boot Mizzou off the bubble and into one of the first four teams out.