As January comes to a close, February marks the heart of the college basketball season. In a highly competitive SEC, the No. 20 Missouri Tigers have staged a remarkable turnaround after finishing 0-18 in conference play last season.
Through January, the Tigers boast a 5-2 conference record and a 16-4 overall mark as they look to return to the NCAA Tournament following a disastrous 2023-24 season.
Despite their strong start in SEC play, this season’s conference is one of the most competitive in history, with 10 of its 16 teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
That said, Mizzou is ranked in the top 30 in both KenPom and the NET rankings, and it has a strong chance of returning to the NCAA Tournament as a projected No. 6 seed, according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, behind its swarming perimeter defense.
Mizzou’s stellar defense has been a key factor in the team's success all season, with Anthony Robinson II serving as the spark plug. Robinson averages 1.9 steals per game, while the team averages 10.1, ranking sixth in the country.
Question: Where will Mizzou land in the tourney?
Answer: It's still hard to tell.
But if you had told Mizzou fans at the beginning of the season that the Tigers would make the NCAA Tournament, they would have accepted it in a heartbeat.
So far, this Missouri team has excelled in transition, a major factor in its success. Forcing turnovers and capitalizing on fast breaks have helped the Tigers build large leads. In marquee wins over Florida and Kansas, quick starts and the ability to establish a comfortable lead have been key.
Looking ahead to March, it’s realistic to expect only 5-6 more wins for the Tigers, as they face a tough schedule to close out the season.
If Mizzou finishes with between 20-22 wins, it’s likely they would be a 7-9 seed in the tournament. However, if the Tigers reach 25 wins, including the SEC tournament, they could be looking at a 3-5 seed, so there’s still a lot that can happen.
Bottom line: This team needs to protect home court and continue their strong play at Mizzou Arena, where they are 14-0 this season. They must win games at home against Oklahoma and South Carolina, as those teams could easily spoil their tournament hopes if the Tigers find themselves on the bubble with a potential Quad 3 loss.
Mizzou enters the final stretch of the regular season with a tough test at No. 14 Mississippi State on Saturday at noon.